The Black Swan
The western world always thought swans are always white, till I guess as late as the 17th century, when some naturalists discovered the black swans. We like to predict life and all of us want to inhabit a deterministic world. Whether, determinism holds or not, is not clearly the subject of this blog, but using the past to predict the future, is clearly a fallacy that most of us fall pray to. And one black swan event, which may not always be for the bad, changes all that we have known and all that we plan or project.
Russel in his own uncanny manner illustrates this using the example of the chicken who starts to believe in the innate kindness of humans, as they feed it, till one day it is slaughtered. Events can always buck the past or currents trends, and take us by surprise and it for such contingencies that we need build personal and organizational resources.
But Black Swans could also be for the good for some, like a usual neighborhood girl getting married to a billionaire and everything changing.
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